Key Findings from the Freedom and Faith Defense Project Swing Voter Survey

Overview

Freedom and Faith Defense Project commissioned a survey of 2,400 swing likely voters—400 each in Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio—conducted by LSG November 5– 20, 2025. The research assessed how swing voters view recent federal actions affecting charities, nonprofits, and religious organizations, and how these attitudes might shape the 2026 midterm elections. The survey shows that swing voters across all six states are deeply uneasy with federal overreach into the nonprofit and religious sector and increasingly likely to support candidates who stand against these efforts.

I. Electoral Landscape and Overall Political Climate

Across every state surveyed, Donald Trump’s job approval is underwater, with 54–60% of swing voters disapproving of his performance. Approval ranged from just 32–40%, with Alaska showing Trump’s highest support and Iowa and Georgia among his weakest.

This dissatisfaction corresponds to a clear electoral shift. If the 2026 elections were held today, swing voters in all six states prefer the Democratic congressional candidate, with Democratic support ranging from 42–48%, compared to 35–40% for Republicans. Democrats lead with swing voters by:

  • D+8 in Alaska
  • D+4 in Georgia
  • D+7 in Iowa
  • D+10 in Maine
  • D+8 in North Carolina
  • D+6 in Ohio

Notably, when swing voters are informed about recent federal actions targeting nonprofits and religious groups, Democratic advantages widen further. Post-test results show increases of +2 to +4 points for Democrats in Alaska, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio— demonstrating that these issues meaningfully influence voter choice.

II. Attitudes Toward Nonprofits, Civil Liberties, and Government Overreach

Trust in Civil Liberties

Swing voters trust the Democratic Party more than the Republican Party on core freedoms:

  • Opposing government censorship: 52–56% trust Democrats more in every state.
  • Protecting free speech: 53–55% trust Democrats more.
  • Overseeing nonprofits and charities fairly: 54–58% trust Democrats more.

Even on religious freedom, where Republicans traditionally maintain an advantage, Democrats are competitive; in several states, the margins narrow to within 1–3 points.

Impact of Federal Actions on Nonprofits

Pluralities of swing voters believe the Trump administration has made it harder for nonprofits and religious organizations to fulfill their missions:

  • Harder : 42–47%
  • Easier: only 12–22%

This sense of government interference affects how voters view federal authority more broadly. While some support more regulation of political activities by nonprofits (32–43%), pluralities oppose the Trump administration and Republicans in Congress increasing federal control over charities and religious groups:

  • 47–51% oppose Trump and Republicans expanding federal authority
  • Only 21–28% support such actions

Additionally, pluralities (38–45%) believe these actions are unique to the Trump administration rather than standard practice—an important marker of perceived extremism or escalation.

Issue Priority

When asked to consider other issues, the majority of swing voters view increased federal control over nonprofits as unimportant compared to other issues facing the country today:

  • Unimportant: 36–45%
  • Important: only 24–38%

III. Concerns About Government Retaliation and Abuse of Power

Concerns about the weaponization of government agencies are among the strongest findings in the survey.

  • 69–75% are concerned about political leaders using government power to target perceived political enemies.
  • 64–72% express concern about the IRS targeting charities and nonprofits deemed unfriendly to the administration.
  • 63–70% worry about future presidents of either party using executive authority to punish nonprofits.

The single most concerning recent federal government action tested was the federal government directing agencies to investigate and prosecute privately funded charities, nonprofits, and religious organizations for allegedly supporting domestic terrorism—especially with weak standards of proof:

• Concern levels: 57–66% across all states.

Voters also express strong concern about punitive actions such as stripping tax-exempt status (52– 61%) or cutting funding for nonprofits accused of political activity (50–60%).

IV. Overwhelming Opposition to Financial De-Platforming

One of the areas with the strongest agreement in the entire survey concerns federal proposals requiring banks to close accounts based on political or religious beliefs.

  • 67–80% oppose such proposals.
  • Support never exceeds 17% in any state.
  • In Iowa, only 6% support the idea.

Conclusion

Across all six states, swing voters show a strong and consistent pattern: they reject the federal government’s attempts to expand control over charities, nonprofits, and religious organizations; they are deeply concerned about political retaliation and the weaponization of federal power; and they react negatively to politicians who support such measures. These concerns directly influence voter preferences, strengthening Democratic advantages in the 2026 congressional landscape.

The findings underscore the need for elected leaders from both parties to step up and reaffirm the independence of America’s nonprofit and religious sector and to protect it from politicized misuse of federal authority—an issue at the core of the Freedom and Faith Defense Project’s mission.